Baseball Predicitons 2011 - AL Edition

So, I promised Jester that this post was going to be up a while ago. The slipshod analysis will prove that this post would be better never than late, but whatever. It's always nice to have completely wrong predictions chisled in stone so that everyone can laugh at them later.

I've flip-flopped over whether I want to go division by division, or just give a basic overview with a couple of thoughts. The latter certainly has the benefit of being less work, while also providing me with fewer ways to look dumb. I think we'll go with one comprehensive post, rather than 6 in-depth ones.

Here goes...

AMERICAN LEAGUE

West

Rangers - 90
Angels - 80
A's - 79
Mariners - 5

No, that's not a typo. The Mariners are only going to win five games. Felix Hernandez is going to have a 1.89 ERA, strike out seven hundred guys, and have a 4-27 record. All four wins will be extra inning shutouts. He will win the Cy Young award, prompting Murray Chass to lead the great "Old School Uprising", they will demand the head of Billy Beane on a platter, because they still can't remember who actually wrote "Moneyball".

The Rangers seem to be the only team in this division that's even passable. I don't see any scenario where they don't walk away from this division.

The A's will be about 5 games back at the trade deadline, prompting their management to go into "rebuild" mode for the 50th straight season.

The Angels will lead the league in spending money on outfielders who will not play in the outfield for an impressive 17th year in a row. That's certainly something.


Central

Twins - 88
White Sox - 86
Tigers - 86
Royals - 72
Indians - 70

A lot of people seem to peg the Royals as a 95+ loss team. I don't have any particular reason to feel optimistic about them, I just want to believe.

This division will be a three team dogfight. I think that the return of Morneau (which, as a massive plus means that my wife will be much more interested in watching baseball with me) helps a lot. I think Liriano's stats should look even better this year than they did last year (he had a .335 babip last year, 20 points above his career average, and 35 above the major league average, that's not sustainable). Getting Nathan back doesn't mean as much to the closer position as one might think (the Twins ramshackle mesh of Rausch and Capps converted saves almost as often as Nathan did in years previous), but it does mean that the bullpen gets another good late-inning arm. The White Sox and Tigers look good, the Twins just look a little better.


East

Red Sox - 95
Yankees - 94
Rays - 88
Blue Jays - 75
Orioles - 70

How much does it suck to be the Rays?

Red Sox had seven million injuries last year, with the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, they ought to pull out (but only just) a division title against the Yankees. Somehow the Twins will end up playing the Yankees, and will sweep them in the postseason. Pavano will be the MVP of that series.


MVP - Evan Longoria
Cy Young - Francisco Liriano (I know I picked King Felix earlier, but 4-27 might be a tough pill for some to swallow. He finishes second. Bloggers everywhere riot in the streets, only to be struck down within hours by severe sun stroke and exposure.)
Rookie of the Year - Jeremy Hellickson

Wow... Really?? I Mean, Really??

Twins general manager Bill Smith, on Livan Hernandez, who improved to 10-6 with a 5.29 earned-run average with Saturday's victory over Texas: "I'll take the (10) wins. Who do you want, a guy who's 10-15 with a 2.80 ERA or a guy who's 16-8 with a 7.00 ERA? I'll take the 16-8."

Source

 

Oh no Bill, not cool... I guess the saying goes 'I'd rather be lucky than good', but as a GM wouldn't you rather draft good, seeing as how it's a little bit more repeatable?

Let's put it this way. If I were to pitch in the major leagues, I'd understandably have a complete inability to get anyone out. I'd give up 96 runs in the first inning, and I'd only start people out when their arms were literally too tired to swing the bat. However, for the sake of this hypothesis, let's also say that my younger brother is toeing the rubber against me. He give up his 342 runs and then he starts walking people. The result is a thrilling 956-872 game, and I end up winning.

Now let's say that the very next day this happens. Scott Baker goes out and gives up 2 hits, one of which happens to be an unlucky home run. He loses because of his offense's innate disability to score runs behind him (this is actually the THIRD time he's lost 1-0 in this not-at-all-hypothetical-all-too-real world).

Who pitched a better game??

Exactly. Wins are overrated. A pitcher can pitch the game of his life, but unless the strikes out every single hitter, he's not in complete control of the outcome - and even then he still has to get some hitting behind him. Seeing how no one has ever done that, (not even Ron Necciai, though that one game was one of the greatest feats anyone has ever accomplished in sports), there has not been a single instance where a pitcher has won a game all by himself. A win is supposed to be a nice indicator of which pitcher pitched better on a given day, but it's a horribly flawed stat. I fear for the Twins, who seemingly have a GM who doesn't grasp that concept at all.

 

Coincidentally, Livan earns his own tag with this post. I'm kind of shocked he didn't already have one. His name has also been added to my computer's dictionary. Truly we live in harrowing times.

Winning Isn't Everything

The win is one of the worst ways to measure a pitcher's effectiveness.

Case in point: Livan Hernandez is, by nearly every metric available, the worst starting pitcher on the Twins' staff (5.18 ERA, on pace to give up over 300 hits, and a mind numbing 3+ strikeouts per 9 innings), but because he's 9-5, he's considered to be the 'ace' of the staff. Dick and Bert, however, aren't satisfied to give him credit for his ridiculous luck, they're happy to attribute everyone else's (much better) pitching to his 'veteran presence' and even when he gives up 7 runs in 4 innings, he's "showing the other pitchers" how to grind through lousy starts (he certainly has the practice). If the Twins were able to make a trade and get a low level third string A-ball catcher who rolls the ball back to the pitcher, I would happily take it.
By contrast, Johan Santana is 7-7 this year, and while I seriously doubt/hope that no one would call Livan Hernandez a better pitcher than Johan Santana, I did overhear some true baseball genius saying just the other day how losing Santana didn't hurt the Twins, because they've got Livan, and he's got 9 wins, whereas Johan only has a 7-7 record. He's not as brutally dominant as he was in his 04-06, and his strikeout rates down a touch, but he's still one of the best pitchers in major league baseball, and to see him in the same paragraph as Livan irks me a bit.

It's this line of reasoning that's keeping Bert Blyleven out of the Hall of Fame, and it's unacceptable and ridiculous.