Baseball Predicitons 2011 - AL Edition

So, I promised Jester that this post was going to be up a while ago. The slipshod analysis will prove that this post would be better never than late, but whatever. It's always nice to have completely wrong predictions chisled in stone so that everyone can laugh at them later.

I've flip-flopped over whether I want to go division by division, or just give a basic overview with a couple of thoughts. The latter certainly has the benefit of being less work, while also providing me with fewer ways to look dumb. I think we'll go with one comprehensive post, rather than 6 in-depth ones.

Here goes...

AMERICAN LEAGUE

West

Rangers - 90
Angels - 80
A's - 79
Mariners - 5

No, that's not a typo. The Mariners are only going to win five games. Felix Hernandez is going to have a 1.89 ERA, strike out seven hundred guys, and have a 4-27 record. All four wins will be extra inning shutouts. He will win the Cy Young award, prompting Murray Chass to lead the great "Old School Uprising", they will demand the head of Billy Beane on a platter, because they still can't remember who actually wrote "Moneyball".

The Rangers seem to be the only team in this division that's even passable. I don't see any scenario where they don't walk away from this division.

The A's will be about 5 games back at the trade deadline, prompting their management to go into "rebuild" mode for the 50th straight season.

The Angels will lead the league in spending money on outfielders who will not play in the outfield for an impressive 17th year in a row. That's certainly something.


Central

Twins - 88
White Sox - 86
Tigers - 86
Royals - 72
Indians - 70

A lot of people seem to peg the Royals as a 95+ loss team. I don't have any particular reason to feel optimistic about them, I just want to believe.

This division will be a three team dogfight. I think that the return of Morneau (which, as a massive plus means that my wife will be much more interested in watching baseball with me) helps a lot. I think Liriano's stats should look even better this year than they did last year (he had a .335 babip last year, 20 points above his career average, and 35 above the major league average, that's not sustainable). Getting Nathan back doesn't mean as much to the closer position as one might think (the Twins ramshackle mesh of Rausch and Capps converted saves almost as often as Nathan did in years previous), but it does mean that the bullpen gets another good late-inning arm. The White Sox and Tigers look good, the Twins just look a little better.


East

Red Sox - 95
Yankees - 94
Rays - 88
Blue Jays - 75
Orioles - 70

How much does it suck to be the Rays?

Red Sox had seven million injuries last year, with the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, they ought to pull out (but only just) a division title against the Yankees. Somehow the Twins will end up playing the Yankees, and will sweep them in the postseason. Pavano will be the MVP of that series.


MVP - Evan Longoria
Cy Young - Francisco Liriano (I know I picked King Felix earlier, but 4-27 might be a tough pill for some to swallow. He finishes second. Bloggers everywhere riot in the streets, only to be struck down within hours by severe sun stroke and exposure.)
Rookie of the Year - Jeremy Hellickson

Hopnog Bottling Day

...was yesterday. The Hopnog is now residing in our guest bath, where it will stay undisturbed, dark, and at a consistantly warmish temperature. The alcohol content is a little on the lowish side (I think I measured it at 4.3%), and it got a little bit of sediment in a couple of the bottles when my father-in-law insisted on getting "just a little more" out of the bottling bucket, but I'm excited. The beer should be ready to drink in time for the Twins home opener, so I've got multiple reasons to be pumped for that.

I wasn't a big fan of the "just drop the pellets in a be careful later" method. My FiL mentioned that he generally steeped the hops in a mesh bag instead of of just dropping them in. In any home-brewers happen by this blog, by all means let me know what some good ways of accomplishing this are.

Still, even with a little extra sediment and a lowish ABV number, I made 46 bottles of beer, now I just have to wait.

Spookymilk Survivor VIII: Punch To a Quick End

Last week went pretty well. This week, the challenge was to write as short a complete story (or at least something that told a complete part of a complete story) as possible. To complicate matters, the story had to fit within two bookending sentences (helpfully provided by the judges).

Better get used to these bars, kid.
Your stunned silence is very reassuring.

It didn't matter which one started the story, and which finished so long as the story was bookended by those two sentences. In addition to the standard "x points out of 5" scale, additional points would be added or taken away based on the length of the piece in comparison to the other entrants. The shortest three (again, assuming the entrant told a self-contained story) would be given extra points. The longest three would lose points.

Was I able to top last week's top notch score and grab an almost impossible '7'? Read on...

My entry:

“Better get used to these bars, kid.”

The words snapped me back to reality as I stood in front of the dessert table at my wedding reception. The man’s voice went on, “after all, you did marry into a Lutheran family. Goes with the territory”. I faked a chuckle.

My new wife approached. “What a whirlwind of a day. Is there anything I can get for you? Have you met my family?”

I wanted to say something but nothing was coming. I couldn’t do anything but stare dumbly at those damned brownies. I guess I had a lifetime of those to look forward to, at least. Lisa gave me a quizzical look before playfully jabbing me with her finger, “Your stunned silence is very reassuring.”

Kelly and Beau's Critiques

K: I do like the sad internal monologues of people in regret. Always interesting stuff. I assume this one will be on the long side, but it’s good. 4

B: Cute. I’m not much into denomination jokes. I am very into brownies. 3

For fun, here's the breakdown of what everyone's "bars" were:

Dessert: 4
Prison or Other Cage: 3
Musical Notation: 2
Drinking Establishment: 2
Handlebars: 1
Generic Metal Bars: 1

So first things first, I guess I completely failed in my intention to pick something others might not. I figured more people would go for either the prison or drinking establishment routes. My first thought was to go a more comedic route, with the bars tasting terrible or something of the like. I'm glad I didn't do that, as a couple of the other entrants went in that direction, and were more successful than I probably would have been.

I'm not entirely certain where I got the idea of a semi-regretful groom staring at a dessert table. I've never actually seen one of the stereotypical Lutheran "Potlucks" at a wedding reception - certainly not mine, though I did marry into a Lutheran family (more on that in a moment). The "Lutheran family" joke was actually meant to lampoon those who DO subscribe to denominational humor (I really dislike humor of that ilk), so I had the speaker of that joke be a nameless, faceless annoyance. It looks like that didn't come across quite the way I wanted for it to.

The "stunned silence" line simply would not fit into the story, no matter what I tried. I still don't like the look of it. It's not a phrase that is very easy to shoehorn into "normal" dialogue. It sounds sarcastic, but stiltedly so. The bride is playfully ribbing the protagonist, and it doesn't quite look right, but I don't it's so bad that it throws everything off.

I didn't even bother with length. I know that length was precisely half the challenge, but I couldn't find a way to tell the story I wanted to tell without having three characters, and it's quite difficult to have three characters and describe them in only a couple throwaway sentences. As it turns out, I think I made the right call on disregarding the length (but only barely so, a couple more sentences and I would've lost points). I think the idea of "short as possible" stories is a good one, and the challenge on whole is solid, but most of the shortest ones read as jumbled and somewhat static (and received low "story" scores as a result), and most of the longest ones ended up being the best. In the end everyone who submitted was within a point and a half of each other. That probably says something about the level playing field almost as much as it does about the challenge, but I digress.

More nonsubs this week, so of course, it only mattered insomuch as it's always fun to read the submissions. Maybe next week we'll get a full quorum and things will get interesting.

Spookymilk Survivor VIII: Create-a-Challenge Grab Bag

I didn't update this last week because it was the create-a-challenge, and I never have anything very interesting for those. In fact, the one I made this time around is one I would explicitly not want to actually do - it scored appropriately poorly.


This week, though, I was a little more excited. Spooky and Beau chose seven challenges out of those submitted last week (including mine, for reasons that likely involve brevity), and instructed us to pick whichever one struck our fancy.


This was actually the first time during this Survivor that I felt solid inspiration. I ended up choosing Drew's challenge, involving these three seemingly unrelated pictures.









Here's what I came up with:

I suppose I am asleep right now. After all, that is how the Lotus Eater works. The machine keeps you in a kind of lucid sleep limbo as the technicians view static images from your memory on the screen. I am not in control of anything; I am simply a passive observer. I don’t even know what they’re looking for.

They didn’t seem to be interested in the first few images, and passed them by pretty quickly. Soon, they found one that must have at least piqued their curiosity. I’m not sure why. It was a memory from my college days. My brother, his girlfriend, and I were drinking on the roof of my parents’ farmhouse. The image is wrong, though… the ground is covering everything up to the top window. It’s almost as if they zoomed in on what they were interested in, ignoring everything else, or maybe the technology isn’t as perfect as they’d like – it’s hard to say. Either way, they saw what they wanted to see and moved on without much delay.

The second image they stopped on seemed to have caught a bit more of their attention. The company I work for had me take a look at some geological anomalies out by the old fairgrounds. The project seemed routine, so I brought my fiancée and her friend along (I will note that geological phenomena do not capture the interest of the average American woman). I didn’t expect to find anything particularly damning, and I didn’t. I gave my superiors my findings, and they placed a research team on the project. That’s not strange, it happens all the time. What is strange is that this image is wrong, too. The bulge in the ground was nowhere near as pronounced as this one is. Something like this would’ve garnered a lot more attention.

While they might not have had much interest in any of the other images, they’re clearly keen on this last one. They’ve had it up for what feels like hours. I don’t even remember being in a room that looks like this. Knowing how images in this mindspace get altered, I’m trying my best to think of how this one could have been changed. I think I vaguely recognize my fiancée in the middle, and the person on the right could be my brother’s ex-girlfriend, but they never knew each other, and I’ve seen then together. The person on the left is obscured, and doesn’t look familiar, anyway. In fact, the whole memory is so unclear that it doesn’t seem like any information could be gleaned from it at all. I’ve been trying to piece together how these last three images could be connected, and I’ve gotten nothing. Unless…..

Oh, God…

I don’t think that they’re going to be waking me up anytime soon….

And here's what the judges said:

K: What an awesome idea this is. So unexpected, and so clever. It rambles a bit, but that fits the character. 5

B: All right, this is just great storytelling. I so want to know what happens next…no, scratch that. I want to know what happened before. 5

Obviously, I'm pretty pleased with the results this time around. I knew right when I saw the challenge that I wanted to go with the pictures (I'm kind of surprised no one else did, instead opting to go in the rather tired "advice column" direction). The idea of an unnamed narrator being stuck in a sort of limbo of lucid dreaming came right away. The idea of people using a machine to try to extract information from damaged memories came very shortly after. Now the only problem was to write it in a concise manner.

I didn't actually succeed in writing what I had in mind, the middle picture provided me with a problem* - how could I move the story forward without getting overly wordy or even worse, give too much away? This story relied on a vague sense of dread in order to function properly. Revealing too much about the protagonist or what the mysterious people were after - especially before the third act - would undermine everything.

* The second act has always been the hardest to write in any fiction I've ever written. In fact, I'm not actually sure I've ever completed one to my liking.

The third picture was suppose to be the easiest. The picture itself is good, but given the right framing device, could feel ominous. The problem was, how was I going to tie everything together when I didn't even know myself how everything tied together? The answer - don't tell anyone how it ties together - could be viewed as kind of a cop-out. You really don't learn anything about the main character other than the fact that he's just realized something awful and is in very deep trouble by the end of the story. I actually like it better that way. Over analyzing dread removes a lot of the bite to the feeling. A monster in dim light is more frightening than both a monster in full light and a monster in no light.

I actually had a full paragraph opening this as a sort of explanation of what was happening to the narrator, and how the world operated. I excised this and went for the more slimlined version seen in the final version. I like that decision. I've actually thought about writing a full length short story about this scenario, but I'm unsure of whether or not it the feeling that this short piece evoked could possibly be drawn out to that extent. I guess we'll see.

Bottom line, there were nonsubs again this week, so it didn't matter. DARK STORMY KNIGHTS remains triumphant, and Nick Punto is sitting somewhere in St. Louis, eating a plate full of bacon and laughing maniacally.

Spookymilk Survivor VIII: Dewey Defeats Truman

So, after rolling to a better-than-deserved-but-still-kind-of-disappointing third place in last year's Spookymilk Survivor creative writing contest, I'm back for another round with a new team. My team, DARK STORMY KNIGHTS, seems pretty solid, and through the first four weeks, we've yet to lose a member.

For week five, the challenge was "Dewey Defeats Truman". Write a short article based on a real life news item with a drastically different outcome.

This was my submission:

May 7, 1937

The Zeppelin Hindenburg arrived in Lakehurst, New Jersey this morning, carrying 97 passengers. Though the trip itself may be considered a marginal success, the dullness of the trip left most of the patrons wanting.

“The trip itself was an awful bore” stated one of the travelers, “I mean, I know airships are safer than those awful fixed wing aircraft, but I do wish they were a little more exciting.”

The disappointing reviews, in conjunction with the financial failure of the movie Dirigible, seem certain to spell the end of the golden age of airships.

These were the judges' critiques (scores are out of 5)

K: I don’t say this often, but this one isn’t wordy enough. I love this concept – the idea that a story would be written for no other reason than to relate a story of people being bored – but a longer story would have made it just keep getting funnier, I think. 4

B: You know, there’s nothing really funny about this one. But it’s written well. And it’s short, which is a nice touch in itself, what with the Hindenburg now being a back page story. The movie tie-in is pretty sweet, although the fact it was released six years prior hurts the irony of its mention a bit. Still, nice work. 4

Overall Score: 4

First thing, I knew to avoid politics. While I enjoy discussing politics occasionally, I knew that there would be lots of political sketches (though I didn't know how many there really would be). I knew that it would be unwise to go toe-to-toe with some of the writers on a political level. That's fair enough. Besides, while it's fairly easy to write a light-hearted political spoof, it's damned tough to write well-written political satire.

The next thing I found out is that just about anything I could come up with for this challenge would bear resemblance to a certain mock news site already in existence. While I do enjoy the Onion, it tends to be formulaic, and if I wasn't careful, it would be too easy to fall into the standard Onion formula.

Once I started writing, I found that just about everything that was appearing on the screen sucked. I wrote a Grammy write-up in which Katy Perry won best album, causing Russell Brand to rush the stage and start mooning the audience, only for an angry Justin Bieber fan (Usher, as it was) to rush the stage in turn, take the Grammy out of Ms. Perry's hands and bludgeon Mr. Brand to death with it. Not good. Awful, in fact. Everything I was writing was too complicated, or too jokey, too pointlessly edgy, or just flat out DUMB.

Originally the Hindenburg piece that I went with was going to have two more paragraphs (which would have included another eyewitness account and a mini-editorial by the 'reporter'). I cut them out because they didn't make anything any funnier or better, only longer. The fact that Dirigible came out in 1931 was unfortunate, and I’m not sure if it was a financial failure or not, it was just an interesting piece of trivia, and I liked the idea that someone was deciding that airships were screwed because a movie about them did poorly. I liked how my piece - short as it was - was written. It looked like a little blurb that could have been tucked away on the fourth page. It was a little bit of a gamble (my decision to go the short route on the Battle of the Mimes challenge last year very nearly ended with my elimination*), but I decided that it was the best I could up with without sprawling into writing bloat.

* Then again no matter what length, mine would have been the worst entry that week anyway, it was a hell of a challenge, and I'd suggest anyone who hasn't seen it go check it out - very much worth a read.

I guess it didn't matter one way or the other. There were two people who didn't even submit anything, so they'll be on the block (which is disappointing, there's been a lot of great work already this contest, and none of it's meant much of anything because of the nonsubs). I'll keep this up to date, detailing my time in the contest a little better than I did last year. If nothing else, it'll be a nice time-capsule of where my headspace was at when I was writing this.